Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.002404 0.002557 0.002720 0.002908 0.003120 0.003353 0.003631
2024-10-27 0.002156 0.002362 0.002595 0.002880 0.003224 0.003633 0.004168
2024-11-03 0.001899 0.002119 0.002375 0.002700 0.003113 0.003631 0.004357
2024-11-10 0.001800 0.002044 0.002337 0.002726 0.003243 0.003935 0.004987
2024-11-17 0.001731 0.001995 0.002323 0.002772 0.003400 0.004291 0.005769
2024-11-24 0.001646 0.001919 0.002264 0.002750 0.003453 0.004504 0.006381
2024-12-01 0.001603 0.001890 0.002262 0.002802 0.003615 0.004904 0.007430
2024-12-08 0.001543 0.001835 0.002220 0.002791 0.003680 0.005155 0.008289
2024-12-15 0.001478 0.001770 0.002158 0.002745 0.003680 0.005293 0.008966
2024-12-22 0.001454 0.001756 0.002166 0.002801 0.003852 0.005772 0.010665
2024-12-29 0.001427 0.001738 0.002166 0.002844 0.004005 0.006250 0.012702
2025-01-05 0.001378 0.001686 0.002114 0.002800 0.004000 0.006400 0.013871
2025-01-12 0.001312 0.001609 0.002025 0.002698 0.003889 0.006326 0.014330
2025-01-19 0.001276 0.001574 0.001996 0.002691 0.003953 0.006665 0.016755
2025-01-26 0.001204 0.001485 0.001883 0.002538 0.003727 0.006279 0.015752
2025-02-02 0.001183 0.001469 0.001878 0.002563 0.003847 0.006762 0.019487
2025-02-09 0.001168 0.001460 0.001883 0.002606 0.004008 0.007404 0.025815
2025-02-16 0.001139 0.001429 0.001853 0.002587 0.004037 0.007701 0.030980
2025-02-23 0.001128 0.001423 0.001861 0.002633 0.004213 0.008500 0.046400
2025-03-02 0.001104 0.001398 0.001838 0.002624 0.004265 0.008933 0.063364
2025-03-09 0.001075 0.001365 0.001800 0.002582 0.004239 0.009095 0.079186
2025-03-16 0.001067 0.001362 0.001811 0.002633 0.004434 0.010163 0.205678
2025-03-23 0.001057 0.001356 0.001815 0.002672 0.004608 0.011278 6.320304